Although the price of Bitcoin has had a difficult month, new research suggests that it may rise by another 300% this cycle. The AVIV Ratio, a statistic that contrasts Bitcoin's active capitalization (money in motion) with its total invested capitalization
Although the price of Bitcoin has had a difficult month, new research suggests that it may rise by another 300% this cycle. The AVIV Ratio, a statistic that contrasts Bitcoin's active capitalization (money in motion) with its total invested capitalization (realized capital minus miner payouts), is highlighted in technical analyst Gert van Lagen's X article.
The AVIV Ratio has historically indicated a cycle top when it crosses its +3σ mean deviation. Bitcoin was, for instance, $1,200 in 2013, close to $20,000 in 2017, and over $69,000 in 2021. As long as the AVIV Ratio stays below these historical highs, Bitcoin may reach at least $330,000 this cycle before the +3σ mean deviation requirement is satisfied.
By comparing investor activity to locked-in value, the AVIV Ratio provides a distinctive perspective on market dynamics. A spike, which frequently precedes significant price fluctuations, denotes increased trading or profit-taking. According to Van Lagen's study, this is related to the cyclical nature of Bitcoin, where substantial profits have typically been made during post-ATH rallies. However, volatility is still a wild card, and its prediction accuracy is not validated in different market scenarios.
To support the story, CryptoQuant data shows a significant change: in 2025, the amount of Bitcoin held on over-the-counter (OTC) desks decreased from 166,500 to 137,400. This drop implies that big investors are removing their holdings from exchanges, which could indicate a shift toward long-term storage or less selling pressure.
This year's declining balances at OTC desks are the result of strong net inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have a net value of $128.18 billion, as well as strategic accumulation by institutional investors, led by Strategy's aggressive buying, and new entrants like Metaplanet, which has 10,000 BTC. More than $70 billion in Bitcoin is also held in BlackRock's crypto portfolio, which reflects the current intentions of significant market participants.
According to the power law, the target price of Bitcoin is between $220,000 and $330,000
Another analysis by Bitcoin analyst Sminston With described a similar cycle peak for BTC to Van Lagen's $330,000 price estimate. Using a power law model (R²=0.96) and a 365-day simple moving average (SMA), the analysis predicts that the price of Bitcoin might reach $220,000 to $330,000 in this cycle.
A 100% to 200% spike would be required for Bitcoin, which is currently trading at about $104,000, to reach these levels, which would be in line with previous peaks where prices doubled or tripled above the power law trendline.
With's model contradicts the notion that volatility is decreasing, demonstrating that Bitcoin price cycles continue to exhibit notable oscillations, as indicated by consistent departures from the trendline. Although hopeful, the researcher advises skepticism, pointing out that the data is based on just four market cycles.
Additionally, according to Cointelegraph, despite Bitcoin hitting $112,000, none of the 30 bull market peak indications from CoinGlass indicate a cycle top, suggesting that the cryptocurrency may reach $230,000. With's upbeat attitude is supported by metrics such as Pi Cycle Top and MVRV, which indicate that the bull market has room to run.
