Bitcoin has jumped to $86,444, its April high. Yet analysts caution that price volatility may ensue because of US trade tariffs, with some forecasting a potential fall to $76,000 if market sentiment falters.
Bitcoin Nears Crucial Breakout Point
Bitcoin is holding firm despite volatility on the world markets. On April 2, Bitcoin reached an all-time high on Bitstamp at $86,444, a high since March 28.
Analysts observe that Bitcoin is probing an important technical threshold—the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), the key gauge of determining if a security is in a bull phase or not. This level stands at $87,650, and if Bitcoin can penetrate and sustain above it, then it will seal a new uptrend.
Cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital said that Bitcoin is just one daily close away from validating a breakout from its downtrend. This comes after Bitcoin’s daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) broke its own downtrend, which was in effect since November 2024.
US Trade Tariffs and Market Reactions
Bitcoin’s surge precedes President Donald Trump’s announcement of his big trade tariff plans on April 2 at 4 PM Eastern Time. The policy announcements may bring new volatility to financial markets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Previous tariff moves have hurt Bitcoin in the past, and most investors are holding out to learn how the market responds this time.
Though US stocks opened modestly lower, Bitcoin has regained some lost ground, with strong buying interest at major support levels.
Will Bitcoin Fall to $76,000?
Even with the attempts at a breakout, some analysts are still cautious.
QCP Capital, a top trading house, cautioned that risk assets may stay under pressure following the tariff announcement. They said that Bitcoin still trades without strong conviction, while Ethereum is having trouble holding its $1,800 support level.
Moreover, QCP observed that most altcoins have lost a lot of value in 2024. Some are down more than 90% YTD, while others have dropped 30% within the last week alone. If Bitcoin cannot hold its recent gains, Swissblock, an asset manager, foresees the possibility of returning to $76,000—a decline of 11% from current prices.
A Market at a Crossroads
As per Swissblock, there are no short-term indications of a massive collapse, but Bitcoin still sits at a point of decision. If Bitcoin manages to break above $87,650, it could be a sign of the continuation of the bull market. Alternatively, if sentiment turns bearish after the trade tariff announcement, Bitcoin can retracement towards lower levels of support. With only hours remaining until the tariff announcement, investors and traders are closely observing to determine if Bitcoin will be able to carry on its trend of rising higher—or experience a drastic correction.
