Bitcoin could surge 50% if it mirrors its 2024 breakout pattern, as traders eye support levels similar to last November’s bull run.
A Familiar Pattern Emerges in Bitcoin’s Latest Price Action
Bitcoin’s current price trajectory is catching the attention of veteran market observers. Once again, the digital asset seems to be echoing a past breakout structure, and if history rhymes, the
next leg up could be big.
In a new round of technical analysis, seasoned trader Galaxy points to strong similarities between Bitcoin’s August 2025 market structure and its behavior in late 2024. Back then, Bitcoin pushed through a stubborn resistance line and turned it into support, a move that catalyzed a meteoric rise from $70,000 to $108,000 in a matter of weeks.
Could we be on the cusp of another 50% rally?
Let’s unpack the pattern, the signals, and the broader market context.
The 2024 Echo: Support Retest and Liftoff
In technical trading, patterns don’t repeat perfectly, but they often rhyme. According to Galaxy, Bitcoin is currently in an “interesting spot” as it retests a key ascending trendline. This trendline
once acted as resistance but may now serve as critical support.
That same behavior played out in November 2024. After a clean breakout from the $73,800 level, Bitcoin dipped briefly to test the upper edge of the broken trendline, and from there, it never looked back. The asset rocketed past $100,000 and kept climbing until the January peak of $109,300.
We’re seeing the early stages of a similar setup now. BTC/USD is hovering near $116,000, and if it bounces cleanly off this support, a move to $160,000 is not out of the question—a nearly 50% gain.
The Shape of the Trendline Has Shifted
While the broader structure looks familiar, some technical details have changed.
Back in 2024, the resistance line was descending. Now, in August 2025, it’s sloping upward, forming a more constructive and bullish setup. This ascending trendline reflects the market's
ongoing attempt to establish higher lows, a hallmark of strength.
But context matters too. This isn’t the same macro environment as last year. In 2025, Bitcoin is facing new headwinds, including evolving US trade policies, tariffs, and tighter financial conditions across key economies. These macro shifts are suppressing risk appetite and injecting a level of caution among institutional buyers.
Even so, the underlying strength of Bitcoin’s recent higher highs and higher lows continues to fuel optimism.
Could Bitcoin Dip Lower From Here?
Many traders are asking whether the current consolidation is a sign of weakness or just a pause before another big move.
Some feared a return to the swing lows from earlier this year, but new analysis suggests otherwise. According to on-chain and market structure analysts, Bitcoin’s January peak around $109,300 is now being treated as a major floor, not a ceiling.
The most recent dip, when BTC briefly fell under $112,000, appears to have created another local low. When similar dips happened in April and June, they both marked short-term bottoms that weren’t revisited afterward.
This pattern—a drop followed by a strong recovery without retesting previous lows—adds weight to the idea that the uptrend remains intact.
What’s Driving Bitcoin’s Structure in August?
Behind the charts and patterns are real market behaviors. Bitcoin’s price consolidation in August has been characterized by historically low volatility. In fact, the current Bollinger Band squeeze
on the daily chart is among the tightest in years.
Periods of low volatility often precede explosive moves, either up or down. In this case, the prevailing sentiment is leaning bullish, primarily because of how well support levels have held so far.
Institutional buying has also remained consistent, even if not aggressive. OTC desks report steady flows from high-net-worth individuals and family offices. Meanwhile, ETF inflows, while not as dramatic as in Q1 are still net positive.
What Traders Are Watching Now
There are a few key levels on every trader’s radar right now:
- $112,000: The most recent local low. A close below this level would weaken the bullish thesis.
- $109,300: January’s high, now acting as psychological and technical support.
- $123,000: A short-term resistance point. A breakout above this would likely accelerate momentum.
- $135,000–$140,000: The midpoint of the potential rally zone if the 50% move unfolds.
If Bitcoin does begin to mirror its 2024 breakout more closely, the acceleration could be fast. That prior run from $70,000 to $108,000 took less than three weeks. Traders are positioning accordingly.
Caution Amid the Excitement
Even with bullish sentiment returning, it’s essential to remain grounded. The market is still in a volatile macro environment, and regulatory news, especially in the US can shake sentiment quickly.
Traders should also be mindful of leverage build-up. Liquidations on both long and short sides can cause sharp wicks that invalidate clean patterns.
The current setup looks promising, but like any technical structure, confirmation is key. A bounce from support followed by a decisive break of resistance would be the green light for many traders to enter aggressively.
Until then, it’s a waiting game.
Final Thoughts: A Setup Worth Watching
Bitcoin's recent market structure is a near mirror of one of its most explosive breakouts in recent history. While history doesn't guarantee the same outcome, the technical signs are aligning once again.
If the pattern plays out, we could be witnessing the early stages of a rally that pushes Bitcoin well past its current highs.
Traders will be watching closely not just for price, but for confirmation. Because when Bitcoin decides to move, it rarely gives second chances.
