Bitcoin’s October Countdown: Could $150K Be Just 77 Days Away?

As Bitcoin inches toward what many believe could be the climax of its current bull cycle, a familiar pattern is emerging, one that’s igniting chatter across the crypto community: the “tick tock” fractal.

If history is anything to go by, Bitcoin might be setting the stage for a dramatic push toward the $150,000 mark, and it could all unfold before Halloween.

77 Days to the Top?

According to a well-followed fractal pattern highlighted by analyst CryptoBullet, Bitcoin has a habit of peaking between 518 and 546 days after each halving. The last halving took place on April 15, 2024. That means if the pattern holds, we’re now roughly 77 days away from a potential market top.

CryptoBullet summarized it in simple terms:
“BTC Bull Cycle: only 3 months left. Tick tock, tick tock.”

This isn’t the first time such a countdown has played out. Similar timeframes aligned with the peaks of previous bull runs in both 2017 and 2021. Some analysts expect a top around $130K to $150K. A few of the more optimistic ones are whispering $200K.

New Investors Are Just Getting Started

On-chain data suggests there’s still fuel in the tank. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. from CryptoQuant pointed out that new investor activity tracked through young coins currently makes up around 30% of market activity.

That’s significantly below the 64% seen in March and 72% in December 2024, both of which aligned with local price tops. In other words, retail mania isn’t in full swing yet, leaving room for the rally to stretch.

Adler explains that this quieter backdrop reflects a more balanced market:

“Old holders are still selling moderately. A coefficient of 0.3 shows that three-year-old coins are still soaking up new demand without sharp volatility.”

In short, long-term holders aren’t dumping. The steady hand of experienced investors is providing support, not panic.

Institutions Are Absorbing the Supply

Behind the scenes, institutional demand continues to quietly build. ETFs, public companies, and corporate treasuries have been accumulating Bitcoin throughout 2025, offsetting most of the retail sell pressure.

This institutional absorption has played a key role in keeping Bitcoin’s price structure intact even as short-term traders come and go.

According to Adler:

“The market looks structurally balanced. From the perspective of old wallet capitulation risk, things are stable.”

The Bigger Picture: A Maturing Bull Market

If the fractal holds true, Bitcoin has about 11 weeks left before its possible peak around late October. Whether it hits $150K, overshoots to $200K, or stalls earlier, this countdown feels different.

There’s less hype than past cycles, but also more conviction. Institutions are in. ETFs are here. Regulation is forming. And long-time holders haven’t flinched.

The clock is ticking, and the next few months could define not just Bitcoin’s 2025, but the future trajectory of digital assets altogether.