XRP Faces Sharp Slide Risk in September If $2.80 Support Fails

XRP has been bleeding value lately, down over 22% since its July high near $3.66, and all signs are flashing caution. The coin is perched precariously near $2.88 just above a critical zone. If that $2.80 support cracks, technicals suggest a possible 25% slide toward $2. What's unfolding now could define whether September brings a rebound or a harsh correction.

On-Chain Clues That Matter

According to Glassnode’s cost-basis heatmap, a large supply of XRP about 1.71 billion tokens, is clustered between $2.81 and $2.82. That makes this range a kind of psychological inflection. Once prices fall below $2.80, it's a trigger zone: holders may rush to exit, shedding paper gains. In prior cycles, such supply clusters have often signaled where corrections begin.

MACD Fractal Points to Risk Ahead

On the weekly chart, XRP’s MACD is approaching a bearish crossover, which has preceded sharp declines in past cycles. That’s when the shorter blue MACD line dips below the slower orange line, a sign of fading momentum. Historical patterns suggest those crosses often come with 50–60% drops. If the same unfolds now, XRP could test its 50-week moving average near $2.17 a roughly 25% correction. Worse falls could follow if broader support doesn't hold.

If $2.17 Slips, Look at $1.73 and Maybe Even $1.19

Should $2.17 give way, the next deep support lies near the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $1.73 last seen as a firm floor earlier this year. Slippage beyond could open the door toward the 200-week EMA at $1.19, close to the average cost basis of many holders. That would mark a serious bear market threat.

Broader Technical Patterns Add to Caution

Separately, daily charts show a descending triangle, a classic bearish setup, with the $2.95 level recently broken, pointing toward further downside pressure toward $2.40. Meanwhile, declining daily active addresses and negative cumulative volume delta signal lagging buyer activity. In other words, interest is fading just as supply pressure builds.

Macro Factors and Bitcoin’s Influence

XRP’s fate isn’t just about its own charts. If Bitcoin drops, some warn it might spiral toward $75K, which typically pulls altcoins down harder. Fiscal headlines, Fed policy, and institutional appetite could all tip the scales. September’s macro picture remains murky, and that uncertainty could hasten any technical breakdown.

Could It Still Bounce?

Yes, but it won’t be easy. Analysts point to upside scenarios, including retesting highs near $4 or even $5 if sentiment flips. But most agree that reclaiming and holding $2.80–$2.90 is the first hurdle. If that level holds and trading volume picks up, we could see stabilization. Without that, the path to $2.17 or lower becomes alarmingly clear.

What Traders Should Watch

• Can XRP comfortably stay above $2.80?
• Does MACD avoid a bearish crossover?
• Will daily activity and volume begin to recover?
• Will Bitcoin stabilize or slide further, taking XRP with it?
• How do Fibonacci levels and moving averages (50-week, 200-week EMA) fare?

The Short-Term Outlook: A Critical Crossroads

For now, XRP is at a fragile point. Traders and investors need clarity fast: either the coin holds above $2.80 and rebounds, or it fragments into a correction that could echo deeper into the fourth quarter. September is shaping up to be a defining month for XRP's trend.